Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha (General) Election Exit Poll 2019

PartySeat ShareVote Share (%) BJP20234 SP+Cong14731 BSP4724 Others711

Uttar Pradesh Seat Share Forecast by VDPAssociates

VDP Associates, an agency that conducts opinion poll has come up with startling revelations in its latest opinion poll conducted merely 15 days before the polls in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh. The Agency gives a clear majority to Bharatiya Janata Party in the coming polls. According to its poll, the BJP would get the majority with 207 seats in the house of 403. It would garner 35 percent votes and thus form the government.

What should come as a shocker to the ruling Samajwadi Party and the Congress, its alliance partner is that they would be second and third runner-ups in the assembly elections. SP would get 104 seats with 25 percent votes while congress would get 24 seats with 7 percent votes. Together as an alliance, they would get 128 seats harvesting 32 percent votes. The third contestant, the Bahujan Samaj Party of Maywati would have to be content with merely 58 seats as it would muster 22 percent votes.

The polls were conducted in 41 districts according to VDP Associates and had a sample size of 9119 spread in 87 constituencies. The rural profile was 81 percent of the sample.

THE WEEK Hansa Predicts hung assembly in UP

An opinion poll conducted by THE WEEK-Hansa Research has predicted a hung house in Uttar Pradesh. The poll foretells that the BJP would be the single largest party in the state and that in the house of 403 the BJP is likely to get 192 to 196 seats while the SP- congress alliance would be second getting 178 to 182 seats. The poll predicts that the BSP would be relegated to the third place with just 20 to 24 seats. The independents and other parties are likely to get five to nine seats. The poll was conducted last week after SP and congress sealed an electoral alliance.

TIMES NOW-CVoter Snap Poll on UP

UP Opinion Poll by India Today-Axis

On the day the Election Commission of India announced the polling schedule for five states, an opinion poll conducted by India Today-Axis from October to December 2016 has predicted a clear majority for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The survey shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi's demonetisation drive as having a positive impact on the BJP's vote-share. Demonetisation was announced on November 8, halfway through the survey period. The survey shows the BJP's vote share increasing from 31% in October to 33% in December. In terms of seats, the survey projects 206-216 seats for BJP in the 403-member UP assembly.

ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Opinion Poll Uttar Pradesh

On the other hand, the ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS has predicted a close fight between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. The survey has given 141-151 seats to the Samajwadi Party, 129-139 to the BJP, 93-103 to the BSP and 13-19 to the Congress. According to 28 percent of the voters, incumbent Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav is projected to retain his seat. Bahujan Samaj Party president Mayawati is placed second in the survey results with 21 percent of the votes.

Only 3 percent of the voters picked Akhilesh Yadav’s father Mulayam Singh Yadav for the Chief Minister’s post. Voters also felt that Akhilesh's performance as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister was better than that of Narendra Modi's performance as the prime minister, with 34 percent picking the former.

Amid the deepening feud within the Yadav clan, a whopping 86 percent of the poll respondents picked Akhilesh as their choice for Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister. Father Mulayam Singh and uncle Ram Gopal only found favour with 6 percent and 2 percent of the voters respectively. Interestingly, while support for the SP among Muslim voters appears to have fallen by 8 percentage points from August, the BJP appears to have made inroads with the community in the same time period. While the BJP is expected to bag 55 percent of the upper caste votes, the SP is expected to win 75 percent of the Yadav vote. The BSP is projected to win 74 percent votes from the Jatavs and 56 percent votes from the Dalit community.

India Today-Axis Opinion Poll for Uttar Pradesh

Results of the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll, published on 12 October 2016, have indicated that if elections were to be held in Uttar Pradesh today, the BJP's dream run looks set to continue in Uttar Pradesh with the party expected to win 170 to 183 seats. Nonetheless, it won't be enough to get majority in the state. A party must secure at least 202 seats to form majority in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly. The elections are likely to result in a hung Assembly, the opinion poll has revealed. It goes on predict Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is to be the runner-up with 115-124 seats. Incumbent Samajwadi Party is likely get 94 to 103 seats and sit in opposition. The Congress, which has been out of power in the state since 1989, is likely to fare miserably again, with 8 to 12 seats.

UP Opinion Poll Survey by VDPAssociates

(Oct, 2016)

Party	Seat Share	Vote Shares
BJP+	190	31%
BSP	87	24%
SP	111	27%
Congress	5	5%
Others	10	13%