Punjab Lok Sabha Exit Poll 2019

Punjab Exit Poll 2019

Punjab Exit Poll 2019

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Remember the Date - 19th May 2019 – 6 P.M.

Opinion polls are the reflection of the voter’s sentiments and different agencies are using different methodologies and sample size to modulate the opinion poll results. Elections.in provides a neutral opinion poll/Exit poll after doing the analysis of different media channels

Punjab is one of the five Congress-governed states across the country. Captain Amarinder Singh has been ruling the state since 2017. As per the News Nation poll survey, the BJP may win 5 seats while the Congress is predicted to retain its stronghold with wins in 7 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state. The survey shows a major worry for the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as it has been projected to decrease its tally from 4 to 1.

As far as the vote share is concerned, the News Nation Opinion Poll gives 35 per cent vote share to the Congress followed by the BJP (32%) and the AAP (18%)

In 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP increased its tally from 1 to 2 but suffered a jolt as its senior leader Arun Jaitley lost to Congress leader Amarinder Singh in Amritsar. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) – the BJP ally in the state registered win in 4 seats while the Congress had to be content with just 3 seats. The Aam Aadmi Praty (AAP), on the other hand, made an impressive debut with wins in 4 seats in Punjab.

Elections to 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab is scheduled to be held in a single phase on May 19. The counting of votes for seven-phase General Elections from April 11 to May 19 will be taken up on May 23.

Punjab Exit Poll 2017

It is either AAP or congress government in Punjab according to the exit polls

The Exit polls for the Punjab have unanimously predicted that the SAD-BJP alliance would be on the third spot and the first place would either go to AAP or the congress.

The CVoter exit poll predicts AAP winning 59 -67 seats in the 117-member house while Congress according to its poll would get between 41-49 seats, more or less the same performance as in the 2012. CVoter conducted the exit polls with a sample size of 13,717 people With margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The poll also predicts a rout of SAD-BJP in the state with; SAD-BJP would get just 5-13 seats in the house of 117. The magic figure of 59 is thus easily crossed by the AAP according to the survey.

The India Today/Axis exit poll on the other hand predict that the Congress will win 62 -71 seats and form the government while AAP will get between 42 and 51 seats. The SAD-BJP alliance gets only 4 to 7 seats.

Punjab Assembly Elections 2017: Opinion Poll Results

Following is a detailed break-up of the results of different opinion polls conducted by independent media agencies:

Latest HuffPost-CVoter Pre-Poll Survey on Punjab Assembly Election 2017

A HuffPost-CVoter pre-poll survey has predicted that AAP is on the way to win Punjab elections. It has predicted that AAP would be single largest party in the state with simple majority. The poll gives AAP 63 seats in the house of 117 and predicts that it is likely to sweep the Malwa region. Traditionally, it is said, whichever party wins in Malwa wins the Punjab. AAP according to the survey would get 40 of its seats in Malwa, almost sweeping it. The poll says that AAP would be eating into the vote bank of Akalis as also of the congress. The congress according to the polls would get 43 seats while Akalis are likely to settle for 11. Interestingly the vote share of the Akalis would be halved while AAP would sweep with 36.8 percent votes.

The survey also asked respondents to rate the chief minister candidates. Prakash Singh Badal’s rating showed a sharp decline. People also rated the performance of the state government led by Badal as corrupt and incompetent which was unable to tackle unemployment, inflation and law & order situation.

Interestingly, the congress candidate for chief ministership Captain Amarinder Singh has emerged as the first choice of the people, though the people have chosen Aam Aadmi Party over Congress. AAP has not declared its CM candidate for the state. The polls were conducted in the fourth week of January. The sample size was 19,417 spread across all the 117 seats. Punjab goes to poll on February 4 to elect its 117-member house.

Latest India Today-Axis Opinion Poll on Punjab Assembly Election 2017

The Congress would emerge as the winner in the Punjab assembly elections and form the government according to the latest survey by India Today-Axis survey. The Aam Aadmi Party which is a new entrant in Punjab elections is also putting up a good show according to the survey and should win 41-44 seats in the house of 117.

The ruling Shiromani Akali Dal–BJP combine would be relegated to the third place and would secure only 11-15 seats in the elections. The poll was also conducted about the people’s choice for the chief Minister. Here again, Captain Amarinder Singh emerged the most preferred candidate followed by Bhagwan Singh Mann of AAP the second choice and Prakash Singh Badal the third choice of the people.

Punjab Seat Share Forecast by VDPAssociates

According to the latest survey done by VDP Associates an agency that specializes in opinion polls and surveys, has predicted AAP government in Punjab. It has predicted that the Aam Aadmi Party, the new entrant in Punjab would emerge as the single largest party while the congress would have to be content with the second spot. The Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP alliance would be relegated to the third spot.

The state is witnessing a triangular contest as the AAP is fighting for the first time in the state and according to the survey is likely to get 35 percent of the total votes which would translate into 62 seats thus giving it a clear majority in the house of 117. The magic figure in the house of 117 is 59. The congress another strong contender would have to be content with 44 seats as it would get 33 percent votes.

The poll predicts a pathetic show by SAD- BJP alliance which would get only 7 seats and 26 percent votes thus getting the third position in the state. Akali Dal would get 21 percent votes while the BJP would get 5 percent votes.

The poll was conducted by VDP between January 23 to 28 in 47 constituencies of 14 districts. The sample size achieved was 3922. The 75 percent respondents were from rural areas.

Punjab 2012 Assembly Election Results
Punjab 2007 Assembly Election Results

THE WEEK Hansa Predicts hung assembly in Punjab

An opinion poll conducted by THE WEEK-Hansa Research has predicted a hung house in Punjab. As far as Punjab is concerned the Congress is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 49 to 51 seats in the house of 117. AAP would be second, securing 33 to 35 seats while the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP alliance would get merely 28 to 30 seat. Independents would be winners in 3 to five seats, the poll predicts.

India Today-Axis Opinion Poll on Punjab

According to a pre-poll survey conducted by India Today in association with Axis in December 2016, a down-and-out Congress may finally make a stunning comeback in Punjab in the coming assembly elections in the state which are scheduled to be held exactly a month from now. The opinion poll has given the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress party 56 to 62 seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly. The Akali Dal-BJP combine has been in power in Punjab for two consecutive terms and they are facing a strong anti-incumbency. They may be reduced to just 18 to 22 seats. The other contesting party is BSP, which commands sizeable Dalit votes in the state. It may bag one to four seats.

As revealed by the survey, 33 per cent of the respondents said they want Amarinder Singh as their Chief Minister while incumbent Parkash Singh Badal is favoured by 22 per cent. Kejriwal also makes it to the list by being the choice of 16 per cent of the respondents. Others in the reckoning are Bhagwant Mann (9 per cent), Navjot Singh Sidhu (5 per cent), Sukhbir Badal (3 per cent) and HS Phoolka (1 per cent). A whopping 39 per cent of the respondents said the BJP should end its alliance with the Akali Dal while 28 per cent were okay with the alliance. Punjab will vote in a single-phase election along with Goa on February 4. The results will be counted on March 11.

Punjab Opinion Poll by Lokniti-ABP News

The ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS opinion poll has projected that the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP combine are going to be locked in a tough contest with the Congress in Punjab and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) coming third. It gave 50-58 out of the total 117 seats to the SAD-BJP alliance, 41-49 to the Congress and 12-18 to the AAP.

India Today-Axis Opinion Poll on Punjab Assembly Elections 2017

Results of the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll, published on 13 October 2016, have indicated that if elections were to be held in Punjab today, the Congress would win 49 to 55 seats and emerge as the single largest party in the state. Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had triggered massive interest among voters but also bitter dissent within, is predicted to be a close runner-up with 42 to 46 seats. The Congress tally would fall short of the majority mark in the 117-member state Assembly, because of which it may to go for an alliance with Navjot Singh Sidhu's newly formed Aawaz-e-Punjab. Sidhu's party might manage to secure a few seats and help the two reach the magic figure of 59 in order to form government in the state. With a sample size of 6,552, the survey was conducted on the basis of one-on-one interviews and a set of questions covering all 117 constituencies of the state.

Punjab Election 2017 Opinion Poll by VDP Associates

Punjab Election 2017 Opinion Poll by India Trending Now

Punjab Election 2017 Opinion Poll by TV24 India

Punjab Election 2017 Opinion Poll by HuffPost-C Voter

What should come as a surprise for many, the recently conducted opinion poll by HuffPost-CVoter has indicated an emphatic win for the Aam Admi Party (AAP) in the upcoming Punjab assembly elections in 2017. The AAP is expected to get anything between 94 and 100 seats in the 117-seat Punjab Legislative Assembly. It’s a sharp rise from the poll projection in 2015.

According to the CVoter-HuffPost poll, the Congress Party is in the second position but trailing by a long margin. It is expected to win 8-14 seats in the Assembly, down from the 12-18 seats projected in 2015. The SAD-BJP alliance is a distant third with the party is unlikely to win more than 6-12 seats.

Punjab Election 2017 Opinion Poll by VDPAssociates

Opinion Poll of Other States

UP Opinion Poll 2017
Goa Opinion Poll 2017
Manipur Opinion Poll 2017
Uttarakhand Opinion Poll 2017
Gujarat Opinion Poll 2017